A Remote Sensing and Statistical Assessment of the Erbent Site, Turkmenistan

Desertification poses one of the most critical environmental challenges in Central Asia, particularly in the hyper-arid landscapes of Turkmenistan, where the Karakum Desert occupies nearly 80% of the national territory. This study presents a detailed site-specific assessment of desertification processes at the Erbent research site (39.31551°N, 58.61283°E) in the Ahal region.

The research integrates multi-temporal MODIS-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Land Surface Temperature (LST) data (2000-2023) with long-term meteorological records and the De Martonne Aridity Index. All datasets were processed in a GIS environment. Temporal trends were analyzed using linear regression and the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, while Pearson’s correlation examined inter-variable relationships.

– Statistically significant warming trend in LST: +0.0179°C per year (mean LST = 22.55°C)

– Slight decline in NDVI: -0.0018 units per year (not statistically significant; Mann-Kendall: MK-stat = -24,p = 0.20)

– Decreasing trend in De Martonne Aridity Index: -0.0367 units per year, confirming intensification of arid conditions

– Strong positive correlation between NDVI and aridity index (r = 0.86)

– Moderate negative correlations between LST and both NDVI and aridity index (r ≈ -0.52 to -0.55).

Precipitation anomaly analysis shows that vegetation recovery periods after wet years are considerably weaker and shorter than extreme drought episodes.

Rising thermal stress, combined with localized anthropogenic pressures (overgrazing and saxaul fuelwood harvesting), is progressively reducing the regenerative capacity of pastures dominated by Haloxylon ammodendron. The study demonstrates the high value of integrating remote sensing and statistical methods for desertification monitoring in data-scarce hyper-arid regions.

Practical Recommendations:

– Large-scale phytomelioration with Haloxylon ammodendron Implementation of rotational grazing systems

– Wider adoption of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) principles.

The methodological framework developed in this research offers a replicable model for other vulnerable areas across Turkmenistan and Central Asia.

All article is here.

Nurberdi Atayev,

Magistrant at the Kazakhstan-German University, Educational Program in Integrated Water Resources Management Faculty of Economics and Entrepreneurship, Almaty, Kazakhstan